Residential Real Estate in SW Washington State

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Archives for March 2020

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

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Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCM

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

Seller-Paid Closing Costs?

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Buying a home typically takes some cash out-of-pocket. There are a few loan types that require minimal or no down payment, but there are many extra fees and costs required to actually complete a purchase.

From experience, I know that for many buyers closing costs are typically about 2½% to somewhere around 3½%-4% of the purchase price. As an example assuming that the purchase price of a home is $300,000, out-of-pocket costs of actually closing on the sale (in addition to any down payment) might range from about $7,500 to, say, $12,000. Of the total, 1½%-2½% or so are actual loan fees — lender fees, recording fees, processing fees, appraisal fees, etc, — with the remaining 1%-1½% or so made up of prepaid costs such as upfront homeowner insurance, property taxes, homeowner association fees, prepaid interest, and so on.

Purchase Price $300,000
Loan Fees (1½%) $4,500
Prepaid Expenses (1%) $3,000
Total Closing Costs Paid by Buyer $7,500

So who pays these costs?

One approach often suggested by lenders is that a buyer request the seller foot the bill for all of the costs involved in closing the buyer’s loan.

Depending on the status of the current market or perhaps if a home listing has languished on the market, a seller “might” be willing to pitch in and contribute. However, as is most typical in my greater Pacific Northwest area of quick sales and multiple offers, it’s not realistic to expect a seller to pitch in and help in order to sell their home. That seller is unwilling to reduce the proceeds of their sale (their bottom $$) to pay a portion or all of a buyer’s purchase costs. In the mind of a seller, after all, if a buyer doesn’t have sufficient resources to pay their own way, another buyer will be coming along in the next 10 minutes!

Another strategy is to stack any loan costs on top of the purchase price, with the request that a seller then pay the closing costs out of that increased purchase price. That scenario might look like this:

Purchase Price $307,500
Loan Fees (1½%) $4,500
Prepaid Expenses (1%) $3,000
Total Closing Costs Paid by Seller $7,500

Note that you must be a bit careful with this type of approach. Not only must you, as the buyer, qualify for a higher loan amount, the actual dollar amount of the closing costs will increase based on the higher price and, perhaps most importantly, the home must also appraise at the higher purchase price. With rapidly escalating prices in my area, adding closing costs to a purchase might be just enough to effect a low appraisal–below that all-inclusive purchase price.

Keep in mind, also, that a seller has their own closing costs to pay, which may include brokerage fees, recording fees, notary, HOA dues, etc, and excise or other taxes. Many of these fees are based on the purchase price and if you’ve added closing costs into the purchase price, the seller must pay fees on that inflated price. You may need to offer a seller a slight bit more to cover their extra expenses.

Obviously, if you can pay your own closing costs as part of your purchase, your offer may be looked upon more favorably by the seller and you may have a greater chance that your offer will be accepted. If you do need assistance, be sure to review all of these factors when obtaining loan approval. I’ve seen many offers fail because a buyer asked a seller to pay closing costs … and I’ve seen transactions fail when appraisals come in low.

Your loan officer should provide you with an estimate of closing costs for your purchase. Your real estate representative should provide you with thoughts an options about how to structure a purchase that includes consideration of closing costs.

Another 568 Homes Sold at 9 AM!

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The Difference an Hour Makes

The Difference an Hour Makes [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights:

  • Don’t forget to set your clocks forward this Sunday, March 8 at 2:00 AM PST in observance of Daylight Savings Time
  • Every hour in the United States, 568 homes are sold and median home values rise by $1.92.
  • As we “spring forward” this year, let’s get together to see how you can take advantage of every hour in the housing market.

Thinking of Selling?

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Thinking of Selling? Now May Be the Time.

Thinking of Selling? Now May Be the Time. | MyKCM

The housing market has started off much stronger this year than it did last year. Lower mortgage interest rates have been a driving factor in that change. The average 30-year rate in 2019, according to Freddie Mac, was 3.94%. Today that rate is closer to 3.5%.

The Census Bureau also just reported the highest homeownership rate since 2014 for people under 35. This is evidence that owning their own home is becoming more important to Millennials as they reach the age where marriage and children are part of their lives.

According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index Survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), buyer demand across the country is strong. That’s not the case, however, with seller demand, which remains weak throughout most of the nation. Here’s a breakdown by state:Thinking of Selling? Now May Be the Time. | MyKCMNationally, demand for housing is high, but supply is extremely low. National Association of Realtors (NAR) also just reported that the actual number of homes currently for sale stands at 1.42 million, which is one of the lowest totals in almost three decades. Additionally, the ratio of homes for sale to the number purchased currently stands at 3.1 months of inventory. In a normal market, that number would be nearly double that at 6.0 months of inventory.

A look at the local picture….

In Pierce and Thurston County the current inventory is 0.6 months.  What does this mean?  If no new listings were added, the supply of houses for sale would be exhausted in 18 days!  Lewis County inventory is at 1.5 months or 45 days.  Of course new listings are added each day but not nearly enough to keep up with the demand.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

Buyers need to remain patient in the search process. At the same time, buyers must be ready to act immediately once they find the right home.

Sellers may not want to wait until spring to put their houses on the market. With demand so high and supply so low, now is the perfect time to sell your house for the greatest dollar value and the least hassle.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is entering the year like a lion. There’s no indication it will lose that roar, assuming inventory continues to come to market.